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Thursday, 02 May 2013 00:00

Hard spring foreseen for those allergic to olive pollen in an expected productive campaign for the olive

Developed a new mathematical model based on an artificial neural network that improves the accuracy of pollen predictions

2013 will bring a spring especially hard for those allergic to olive tree pollen, but at the same time will represent the prelude to a good campaign for Andalusians growers, as concluded by a study conducted by the Spanish Aerobiological network, coordinated by a research team from the Campus of International Excellence in Agrifood (ceiA3) in the University of Córdoba. Abundant pollination, derived in an important bloom of the olive tree, will bring a rise in production, even though it may render these months a real trance for people suffering from allergies.

These predictions, made several months ago, are based on an innovative prediction designed system that adopts an artificial neural network as a basis for a mathematical model inspired by the functioning of the nervous system. Its author, the Spanish researcher José Antonio Oteros, whose thesis is being directed by doctors Carmen Galán and Herminia García-Mozo, found out that the statistical study of more than 30 years of pollination and meteorology data may facilitate more accurate predictions than earlier traditional statistical models.

In addition to artificial neural networks, the new system uses bioclimatic and autoregressive indexes from data bases collected in southern Spain since 1982, and has been successfully published in the International Journal of Biometeorology.

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